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Claudia Sahm, who has developed the Sahm Rule recessionary indicator, discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed’s decision-making process.

Key takeaways from this conversation:

• The US economy is slowing down, but it is not in a recession yet.
• The Sahm Rule, a recessionary indicator, suggests a recession, but it has limitations and may overstate the cooling off in the labor market.
• The Federal Reserve should be proactive in its policy and start cutting interest rates to support the economy.
• Geopolitical tensions and the unwinding of the yen carry trade can impact the Fed’s decision-making.
• The Fed has been navigating unprecedented disruptions and policy responses, and the exit strategy may be messy

HFR is the global leader for hedge fund research and indices in the financial world. This podcast features our monthly index updates, as well as interviews with allocators and subject experts who provide timely analysis and commentary on economic outlook and market conditions.

Have questions? To ask a question or be featured on any of our podcasts, contact S. Aneeqa Aqeel, Director of HFR Media, at hfrmedia@hfr.com